North Korea has been boosting that the newest missile launch, which went 2800 miles up proves it has a nuclear deterrent that can reach any target in the United States. A deterrent for what? What exactly is it that the DPRK wishes to deter other countries from, invasion? It has been 50+ years of standing toe to toe with them and still no invasion. I have a bad feeling about this.
It has long been the stated goal of North Korea to rid the Korean peninsula of American troops. Why do they want that? I think it would be much easier for the North to invade the South and they would be more emboldened to do it if there were no American presence. Remember, it was the North that invaded the South so many years ago. They did the invasion when the American presence there was small. That history and stated goal of reunification, which they tried with force and failed, cause me to think that is the true reason for their desire for Americans to leave.
So what if the US left the area because we feared a nuclear strike on the US homeland? What happens then? Maybe the DPRK would actually risk invasion to obtain their goal of reunification. They might believe that the US feared their "deterrent" and wouldn't do anything about it. Of course the United States would do something about it. The problem then becomes the time between now and some time in the future in which they invade and we respond. How many ICBMs armed with nuclear warheads would they have amassed between times, 10, 50, 100? This is playing out like a bad scifi movie.
Remember what happened with Germany. They built up massive arms even though they weren't supposed to because of post WWI treaties. They built them up anyway and they used them too. The use of appeasement didn't work to stop them and their territorial aspirations, so what makes anyone think that more "tougher" sanctions are going to work against North Korea? Sanctions haven't worked and more sanctions will not work either.
We have tried and tried with the sanctions, but yet the North Korean ICBM get longer and longer ranges and their nukes get ever more powerful. I don't know the numbers, but I can guarantee that the numbers of missiles they have down the road will be more than they have now.
All the guessing about accuracy, and survivability don't mean a hill of beans if they are wrong. If their guessing is wrong, a lot of people are going to die. The president talked so big about raining down fire upon them. About how they will not allow them to have a nuke that can reach our shores. Okay, now they have them and how does Trump react? More ineffective sanctions. That is a move that will only embolden the DPRK even more. They will think that what they are doing is working. Now Trump has moved from a position of (fake) strength to weakness of the worst kind.
I hate war. I'm a total peace-nik. I am also not a fool. If some person was threatening to kill me with a gun, and I thought they meant it, then they went out and bought a gun, I wouldn't sit around and wait for the bullet to blow my brains out. I would get the police (think sanctions) because we live in a civilized society. If I didn't think the police was going to help me and they kept up the threat, I would have no other choice than to take action on my own. That's something like what we have going on now.
This is a bad situation and it is only getting worse. I don't think it is good at all, as you probably guessed already. I didn't even spell out all the factors in the equation. Here's another couple of factors. They have allowed their ground forces to become in a state of degradation while they poured scarce resources into developing their nuclear missile program. As evidenced by the poor health of the recent defector (worms, hepatitis), I believe the overall health of their armed forces is also poor. Their Air Force is old and not really a challenge against the South Korean or American Air Forces. Kim Jong Un just like all the people in the DPRK, has been fed a steady diet of propaganda all the way from the time he was born. What the state tells the people is what the people will tell others. As an example, one fellow there said that they have achieved the means to bring the death to America they they don't even realize is coming. Another American being interviewed on PBS said that the DPRK wanted to make a nuclear umbrella to protect them while they work on economic growth. I think that last one is looking at the situation with rose colored glasses.
There are adults in the room alright. Adults whose thinking harkens back to previous eras. Primitive animalistic barbarism rules the day. Just like with Nazi Germany when that same barbarism was allowed to flourish because of appeasement. Everyone was tired of war because of the carnage of WWI, so they would make any deal with the hopes of continued peace. We too are tired of war, and we know what would happen if a nuke were levied against a populated area. I tell you, the only thing that has kept the United States from attacking them already is the close proximity of the South Korean capitol to North Korean artillery on the border. That fear of attack has worked mightily in favor of the DPRK, just like it did the Third Reich.
This is a sore that has been allowed to fester. If we allow things to continue, they will build a lot more of their missiles. They will get to a state of not having to put so much money into development of them when their capability is solid. Then comes the upgrade of their other military that has been neglected. For years they have neglected the ground forces part of their military. Even at parades some of their soldiers were using fake weapons. They have also been neglecting their manufacturing base for consumer goods. I've read reports that all citizens there are expected to follow a military lifestyle even if they are not a soldier now.
I'm sorry guys. I'm not trying to bum you out. I'm just trying to keep my eyes wide open. Once when I was a child of 12 there was a squirrel in the flower garden. It was acting real strange. It wouldn't even try to get away. It went back and forth, making lurching, halting motions. My dad didn't try to capture it. He didn't wait to see if it might get better. He took a club and bashed in its head because he knew it was rabid. It was awful and upsetting, but no one got attacked and infected..
Because of all the weaknesses I mentioned in the previous comment, I think if the United States was going to go to war with them, and I think that is inevitable, they should do it sooner rather than later. One might put up two scales one for time and one for body count. The more time that goes by, the higher the body count. I believe these things I've told you all are the things that the military would consider. Trump is a coward too. He talks big talk, which is dangerous because talk is cheap, but in the end he'll try to kick the can down the road hoping he never has to make a tough decision.
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